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Flashpoints

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor
ISBN: 0385536348
File Size: 17,66 MB
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A major new book by New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman (The Next 100 Years), with a bold thesis about coming events in Europe. This provocative work examines “flashpoints,” unique geopolitical hot spots where tensions have erupted throughout history, and where conflict is due to emerge again. “There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball.” —The New York Times Magazine With remarkable accuracy, George Friedman has forecasted coming trends in global politics, technology, population, and culture. In Flashpoints, Friedman focuses on Europe—the world’s cultural and power nexus for the past five hundred years . . . until now. Analyzing the most unstable, unexpected, and fascinating borderlands of Europe and Russia—and the fault lines that have existed for centuries and have been ground zero for multiple catastrophic wars—Friedman highlights, in an unprecedentedly personal way, the flashpoints that are smoldering once again. The modern-day European Union was crafted in large part to minimize built-in geopolitical tensions that historically have torn it apart. As Friedman demonstrates, with a mix of rich history and cultural analysis, that design is failing. Flashpoints narrates a living history of Europe and explains, with great clarity, its most volatile regions: the turbulent and ever-shifting land dividing the West from Russia (a vast area that currently includes Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania); the ancient borderland between France and Germany; and the Mediterranean, which gave rise to Judaism and Christianity and became a center of Islamic life. Through Friedman’s seamless narrative of townspeople and rivers and villages, a clear picture of regions and countries and history begins to emerge. Flashpoints is an engrossing analysis of modern-day Europe, its remarkable past, and the simmering fault lines that have awakened and will be pivotal in the near future. This is George Friedman’s most timely and, ultimately, riveting book. From the Hardcover edition.

Flashpoints

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Doubleday
ISBN: 9780385539722
File Size: 29,15 MB
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A major new book by New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman (The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade) with a bold thesis about coming conflict in the world, this provocative work examines the geopolitical flashpoints-particularly in Europe-in which imminent future conflicts are brewing. George Friedman has forecasted the coming trends (politics, technology, population, and culture) of the next century in The Next 100 Years, and focused his predictions on the coming ten years in The Next Decade. Now, in Flashpoints, Friedman zooms in on the region that has, for five hundred years, been the cultural hotbed of the world-Europe-and examines the most basic and fascinating building block of the region: culture. Analyzing the fault lines that have existed for centuries-and which have led to two world wars and dozens more conflicts-Friedman walks us through the "flashpoints" that are still smoldering beneath the surface and are on course to erupt again. In Flashpoints, George Friedman begins with a fascinating history of the events leading up to the horrific wars that nearly tore apart Western civilization-killing over 100 million people on the "civilized" European continent. Modern-day Europe, and the formation of the European Union, were designed to minimize the built-in geopolitical tensions that led to catastrophic war, but as Friedman shows with a mix of history and cultural analysis, those plans have failed. "Flashpoints" are now simmering as dangerously as in the early twentieth century. Zeroing in on half a dozen locations, borderlands, and cultural dynamics, George Friedman does what few historians can-he explains precisely how certain trends are unstoppable, and what the future holds . . . both in terms of conflict and also opportunity. Flashpoints also explains in riveting detail how events in Europe will affect the rest of the world-from the United States to Russia, from China to Latin America. Continuing in his bestselling tradition, he reveals a geopolitical landscape that is at once a scintillating history lesson and a forecast for the coming years.

Flashpoints

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Scribe Publications
ISBN: 1925113841
File Size: 9,99 MB
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Europe is ready to explode. Where will the explosion take place and what will the damage be? This major new book from the bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman presents a bold and provocative thesis about the likeliest locations for the coming eruptions. George Friedman forecasted coming global trends in The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. Now, in Flashpoints, he zooms in on Europe and examines the dry tinder of the region: culture. Walking the faultlines that have existed here for centuries, Friedman inspects all the dormant social and political fissures still smouldering just beneath the continent’s surface, and identifies those likely to erupt first. The book begins with a fascinating history of the events leading up to the horrific wars that nearly tore apart Western civilisation, and shows how modern efforts to overcome Europe’s geopolitical tensions — including the formation of the European Union — have largely failed. Homing in on half a dozen pivotal locations, George Friedman gauges what the future holds, both in terms of conflict and also opportunity. Flashpoints details how events in Europe will affect the rest of the world — from USA to Russia, from China to Latin America — and reveals a new yet familiar political landscape in what is at once a gripping history lesson and a terrifying forecast of the potential devastation ahead. PRAISE FOR GEORGE FRIEDMAN ‘This nonacademic but erudite view of European history shows that the 20th century’s trauma of war and violence is not quite behind us … A thoughtful, uncluttered treatise considering Europe's intractable patterns of unemployment, immigration and racism.’ Kirkus ‘In this insightful examination of contemporary Europe, political scientist Friedman (Next Decade) challenges the view that the European Union and its neighbors have transcended the threat of violent conflict among nations … By dispassionately anatomizing the fears, aspirations, and interests of the key players, particularly a resurgent and resentful Russia, Friedman vividly describes a region where memories are long, perceived vulnerabilities are everywhere, and major threats have emerged rapidly and unexpectedly many times before.’ Publishers Weekly

Flashpoints

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Scribe Publications
ISBN: 1925106608
File Size: 13,81 MB
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Europe is ready to explode. Where will the explosion take place and what will the damage be? This major new book from the bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman presents a bold and provocative thesis about the likeliest locations for the coming eruptions. George Friedman forecasted coming global trends in The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. Now, in Flashpoints, he zooms in on Europe and examines the dry tinder of the region: culture. Walking the faultlines that have existed here for centuries, Friedman inspects all the dormant social and political fissures still smouldering just beneath the continent's surface, and identifies those likely to erupt first. The book begins with a fascinating history of the events leading up to the horrific wars that nearly tore apart Western civilisation, and shows how modern efforts to overcome Europe's geopolitical tensions – including the formation of the European Union – have largely failed. Homing in on half a dozen pivotal locations, George Friedman gauges what the future holds, both in terms of conflict and also opportunity. Flashpoints details how events in Europe will affect the rest of the world – from USA to Russia, from China to Latin America – and reveals a new yet familiar political landscape in what is at once a gripping history lesson and a terrifying forecast of the potential devastation ahead.

The Next Decade

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Scribe Publications
ISBN: 9781921753978
File Size: 24,87 MB
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The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. The next ten years will be a time of massive transition. The wars in the Islamic world will be subsiding, and terrorism will become something we learn to live with. China will be encountering its crisis. We will be moving from a time when financial crises dominate the world to a time when labour shortages will begin to do so. In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers a provocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immediate future. Using Machiavelli’s The Prince as a model, Friedman focuses on the world’s leaders — particularly the American president — and, with his trusted geopolitical insight, analyses the complex chess game they will all have to play. The book also asks how to be a good president in a decade of extraordinary challenge, and puts the world’s leaders under a microscope to explain how they will arrive at the decisions they will make

The Next 100 Years

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Black Inc.
ISBN: 1921825545
File Size: 17,88 MB
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"Predictions have made George Friedman a hot property these days." -The Wall Street Journal In The Next 100 Years, George Friedman offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era - with changes in store, including: * The US-Jihadist war will conclude - replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. * China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. * A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. * Technology will focus on space - both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

America S Secret War

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor Books
ISBN: 0767917855
File Size: 18,51 MB
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A founder of a leading private intelligence company offers a geopolitical, inside analysis of the truth about America's true foreign policy in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other locations around the world, examining covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism, the unreported factors that led to the invasion of Iraq, and other important events. Reprint. 20,000 first printing.

The Intelligence Edge

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Century
ISBN: 9780712679862
File Size: 23,84 MB
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The ability to find and analyse information quickly and accurately can give a business an edge over its competitors. The authors show how to learn the skills that help transform widely accessible raw data into useful knowledge, by adapting techniques used by such organizations as the CIA.

The Storm Before The Calm

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Doubleday
ISBN: 9780385540490
File Size: 27,40 MB
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The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail. American history must be viewed in cycles--particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples--the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s--a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world. Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.

The Absent Superpower

Autor: Peter Zeihan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780998505206
File Size: 12,13 MB
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In 2014's The Accidental Superpower, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower, mapping out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder.

The Next Decade

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor
ISBN: 0307476391
File Size: 21,46 MB
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Makes predictions about the imminent challenges that will test America and the world of the near future, forecasting such events as an economic crisis in China and a transition from financial problems to labor shortages.

The Accidental Superpower

Autor: Mr. Peter Zeihan
Publisher: Twelve
ISBN: 1455583677
File Size: 12,66 MB
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In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power. Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners. We think of this system as normal-it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time. In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order. For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.

Prisoners Of Geography

Autor: Tim Marshall
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1501121472
File Size: 18,36 MB
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First published in Great Britain in 2015 by Elliott and Thompson Limited.

The Future Of War

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: St. Martin's Griffin
ISBN: 9780312181000
File Size: 12,12 MB
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The Future of War makes a brilliant case that the twenty-first century, even more than the twentieth, will be the American century, and that America's global dominance will be associated with a revolution in weaponry and warfare as basic as the one that arose with the development of gunpowder five hundred years ago. From the era of flintlocks and cannons to the day of automatic weapons and heavy artillery, the waging of war-while undeniably changing in many aspects-has continued to rely on the technology that began with the use of black powder to expel a projectile through a tube. In The Future of War, the authors argue that this Age of Ballistics is ending and we are entering a fundamentally new period, the Age of Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs), the so-called smart weapons that will antiquate the traditional way of making war. Where guns and artillery are inherently inaccurate and need to be fired thousands of times to hit one target, these new projectiles are precise and lethally efficient; while ballistic weapons platforms must be brought within range of the battlefield, PGMs can devastate from any distance. The authors show how the innovations in weapons technology will affect America's defense strategies on land and sea, in air and in space, reshaping our military forces, while confronting us with new strategic challenges as America enters the twenty-first century as the dominant power on the globe.

Constraint Theory

Autor: George Friedman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387276502
File Size: 26,56 MB
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At first glance, this might appear to be a book on mathematics, but it is really intended for the practical engineer who wishes to gain greater control of the multidimensional mathematical models which are increasingly an important part of his environment. Another feature of the book is that it attempts to balance left- and right-brain perceptions; the author has noticed that many graph theory books are disturbingly light on actual topological pictures of their material. One thing that this book is not is a depiction of the Theory of Constraints, as defined by Eliyahu Goldratt in the 1980’s. Constraint Theory was originally defined by the author in his PhD dissertation in 1967 and subsequent papers written over the following decade. It strives to employ more of a mathematical foundation to complexity than the Theory of Constraints. This merely attempts to differentiate this book from Goldratt’s work, not demean his efforts. After all, the main body of work in the field of 1 Systems Engineering is still largely qualitative .

The Revenge Of Geography

Autor: Robert D. Kaplan
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN: 0812982223
File Size: 5,99 MB
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The best-selling author of Balkan Ghosts presents a timely and provocative response to The World Is Flat that draws on the insights of leading geographers and geopolitical thinkers to present a holistic interpretation of the next cycle of conflict throughout Eurasia that considers such topics as European debt, Chinese power and the role of Iran.

The Social Construction Of Expertise

Autor: Gail Savage
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh Pre
ISBN: 0822974819
File Size: 13,99 MB
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The British created a system wherein the social identity of civil servants clearly influenced their position on official matters. This privileged class set the tone for major policy decisions affecting all members of society. Savage addresses this social construction of power by analyzing the social origins and career patterns of higher-level civil servants as a backdrop for investigating the way four different social service ministries formulated policies between the two World Wars: the Board of Education, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Labour, and the Ministry of Health.

Disunited Nations

Autor: Peter Zeihan
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 0062913697
File Size: 30,88 MB
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A forward-thinking geopolitical guru explains who will win and who will lose in the coming global disorder. The world is entering its greatest period of change in nearly a century. America’s allies depend on her commitments for their economic and physical security, and they hope the Trump administration’s positions are an aberration. This hope is misplaced. The world has gotten so used to the “normal” of an American-dominated Order that we all have forgotten the historical norm: several smaller, competing powers and economic systems throughout Europe and Asia. The period of American hyper-involvement in global affairs is ending. The impacts on global energy and agricultural markets, finance and technology will be transformative, but the heirs to the dying Order are not who you think. Russia, India, China and Brazil will not be the superpowers and wunderkind of the future. Rather, names familiar and new will be taking charge of the emerging global Disorder. Germany will decline as the most powerful country in Europe, with France taking its place. Every country should prepare for the collapse of China, not the rise of North Korea. We are already seeing, as he predicts, a shift in outlook on the Middle East: it is no longer Iran that is the region’s most dangerous threat, but Saudi Arabia. Smart, gripping, and essential reading, Disunited Nations is a sure-to-be-provocative guidebook that analyzes the emerging shifts and resulting problems and issues that will arise in the next two decades. We are entering a period of profound upheaval; no political or corporate leader can ignore Zeihan’s insights or his message if they want to survive and thrive in this uncertain new time.

Irish Governance In Crisis

Autor: Niamh Hardiman
Publisher: Manchester University Press
ISBN: 9780719082238
File Size: 23,77 MB
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Ireland's international reputation changed rapidly from global success story to European problem-case. How did this happen? What are the implications for our view of good governance? This book argues that there is a crisis in the way the Irish state is structured and in the manner in which it relates to the main organized interests in the society. Through a set of linked policy studies, it shows how sectional benefits can be prioritized where public interest considerations are weakly articulated and debated. Policy choices may entail unintended perverse consequences that, once embedded, can be difficult to alter. The book traces these weaknesses to the dominance of parties, the permeability of the political system to sectional interests, and the weakness of democratic accountability. A powerful concluding chapter sets out an agenda for future research on institutional design and political reform. This book sets out a compelling argument that institutional design matters, especially in an increasingly global and interdependent world.